Disregard for civilian casualties causing Al-Shabaab infighting and defections.

Old issues of contingency and debates about the treatment of Muslims and disregard for Muslim casualties seem to be resurfacing within the ranks of Al-Shabaab. 

The group is notoriously known for its lack of tolerance towards dissenting opinions. Rebellious members who disagree with the leader, risk imprisonment or even execution.  

In 2010, Alshabaab attempted to oust AMISOM forces in a frontal attack, rather than the asymmetric operations it usually favors. 

The Ramadan offensive left sub-commanders Hasan Yaqub and Mukhtar Robow disgruntled with Godane’s leadership. After the offensive, one of al-Shabaab’s strengths, its shura council, ceased to exist, probably due to animosity between members especially top leaders. 

Several al-Shabaab leaders announced a fatwa (religious ruling), removing the requirement that al-Shabaab fighters be loyal to the Amir if he was violating the Qur’an, which they alleged Godane guilty of by targeting dissenters within the group. These leaders ranged from al-Shabaab’s second-in-command, Ibrahim al-Afghani.

Of late there have been reports of several defections from Al-Shabaab. This could be an indicator of ongoing wrangles within the group. With its leader, Abu Ubeida, recently firing two senior members including Mahad karate who until his dismissal was grooming himself to take over the reins, a fierce battle seems to be in the offing. The radical group is going through a period like the one in 2010, with the infamous Barawe night where senior leaders of the group, some with millions of dollars of bounty on their head, executed by fighters loyal to Godane.

“As members of al-Shabab, however, these defectors say they grew concerned about the radicalized version of Islam that al-Shabab promotes. The interviews revealed relationships the defectors have with current members inquiring about defection, suggesting there are many more within al-Shabab who now question the group’s religious views and motives.”- WP.

The latest disagreements and defections is most likely due to the rate of indiscriminate attacks on civilians. The group is thought to have struck nearly 800 times in 2019. On January 2020, the terror group massacred at least 90 civilians in Mogadishu, most of whom were students, prompting an unprecedented show of anger from the residents.

Later the group issued a rare apology after hundreds of people took to the streets over the blast.